Построение системы динамических нормативов для оценки функционирования сложных систем на примере субъектов Центрального федерального округа
Аннотация
Представлен метод формирования нормативов для оценки результатов функционирования сложных систем, применимых для социо-эколого-экономических систем, с учетом приоритетов развития субъектов Российской Федерации. Методология предполагает выбор нормативных значений из набора норм, построенных по двум методам: первый основан на построении эконометрических моделей с использованием статистических данных для совокупности субъектов (первый тип) и для одного выбранного субъекта (второй тип); второй метод использует методологию байесовских интеллектуальных измерений на базе регуляризирующего байесовского подхода (третий и четвертый типы). В зависимости от результата расчетов выбирается норма, дающая более высокое (в случае высокого приоритета), среднее (в случае среднего приоритета) и меньшее (в случае низкого приоритета) нормативное значение оцениваемых результативных признаков, характеризующих развитие субъекта. Реализация метода продемонстрирована на примере регионов Центрального федерального округа, в том числе Тульской области, для которой построены эконометрические и нечеткие модели. Данными моделями отображается связь объема валового регионального продукта с численностью занятых, со стоимостью основных производственных фондов. Исследование проведено для сельского хозяйства (раздел А) и добычи полезных ископаемых (раздел С) по ОКВЭД1, образующих сырьевой сектор, по данным за 2007–2022 гг. В качестве инструментальных средств применены программные платформы «ЭФРА» и «Инфоаналитик 2.0». Полученные результаты могут быть использованы региональными органами управления при формировании нормативов для оценки результатов функционирования областей в краткосрочном и среднесрочном периодах.
Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 24-28-20020 и Тульской области.
Скачивания
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